India Agri Exports 2026: Record Supply, Higher Quality Bar

Global South EXPOHUB AI Analytics · 2026-11-02

India’s food exports are opening up again after years of curbs, but on harder terms. Exports reached a record $52.55 billion in 2025-26 and New Delhi has lifted its wheat export ban, yet the four main routes ahead look very different. The United States is the most volatile: its tariff on Indian goods has swung between 50% and 10%, and shipments of spices and basmati rice fell. Africa is the deepest market for Indian rice, taking nearly half of it, but Nigeria and Senegal are moving to protect local producers. Europe is the next big opening, but the trade deal negotiated in January 2026 leaves rice out, is still unsigned and needs ratification, while inspections already tighten. South-East Asia is the least developed outlet: the Philippines, one of the world’s largest rice importers, bought only $49 million of Indian rice in 2024-25. Context: A Supplier Whose Policy Moves Prices India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry reports agricultural exports of $52.55 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year (April to March), a record and 2.8% above the $51.12 billion of 2024-25 (Press Information Bureau, 10 June 2026). That is about 64% more than the $32.08 billion of 2014-15, but last year’s growth was slight. Rice is the largest single product at $11.5 billion, followed by marine products, which rose from $7.4 billion to $8.4 billion, and spices at $4.3 billion. Buffalo meat shipments rose 25.6% and coffee exports passed $2 billion for the first time (Indian Express). In 2023 India ranked eighth among the world’s agricultural exporters, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO), as reported by NextBillion. Rice shows how much weight India carries. BigMint estimates that India shipped 25.7 million tonnes in 2025, about 45% of a global trade of 56.9 million tonnes; the International Grains Council (IGC) projected in September 2025 that India would account for 23.4 million tonnes of a record 59.9 million tonnes of world trade in 2025-26, more than one-third (about 39%, calculated from IGC’s figures). The two measures use different bases, one an estimate of 2025 shipments and the other a season projection, but both put India far ahead of any rival: in 2022 its exports were larger than those of the next four exporters combined (Reuters, via Business Standard). That makes Indian policy a world price factor. When India cut rice exports by 20% to 17.8 million tonnes in 2023, buyers turned to Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar, and export prices there rose to their highest in more than 15 years; India removed most of its 2023 rice export curbs in September 2024, well before it freed wheat in 2026. Much of the rice goes to the Global South. Africa took about 9 million tonnes worth roughly $4.5 billion in 2024, nearly half of India’s rice exports (TradeMap data, reported by Ecofin Agency). Sub-Saharan Africa bought nearly 5 million tonnes of Indian parboiled rice between October 2024 and April 2025, 50% more than a year earlier and 70% of India’s parboiled exports, at prices below $350 a tonne against more than $500 a year earlier, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), as reported by Milling MEA. That dependence has a flip side. Nigeria aims to curb imports under its self-sufficiency programme. Senegal suspended rice import permits for a month from 12 November 2025 amid warnings that about 195,000 tonnes of local rice could go unsold, and repeated the measure for a month from 8 July 2026 (Agron Food Processing; Ecofin Agency). India’s export authority, the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), halted certificates for non-basmati rice shipments to Senegal for the period of the November pause. India’s role is also becoming two-sided. Processed foods made up 20.4% of its agri-food exports in 2024-25, up from 13.7% in 2014-15 (Ministry of Food Processing Industries, via IANS, 9 January 2026), and the ministry wants the country’s processing level to rise from 17% in 2023 to 25% by 2031 (Rural Voice, 17 July 2026), backed by a production-linked incentive scheme with a ₹10,900 crore outlay for 2021-22 to 2026-27. At the same time India imports heavily: edible oil imports reached $19.56 billion in 2025-26, covering nearly 60% of domestic vegetable-oil needs, and fresh fruit imports exceeded $3.5 billion. India’s agricultural trade surplus has narrowed from $27.7 billion in 2013-14 to $12.7 billion in 2025-26 (Indian Express). Key Numbers $52.55 billion: India’s agricultural exports in 2025-26, up 2.8% (Press Information Bureau) $11.5 billion: rice exports, India’s largest agricultural export (Press Information Bureau) $8.4 billion: marine product exports, up from $7.4 billion (Press Information Bureau) 120.65 million tonnes: estimated record wheat output in 2025-26, up 2.29% (Ministry of Agriculture, third advance estimates, May 2026) About 39%: India’s projected share of world rice trade in 2025-26, 23.4 of 59.9 million tonnes (IGC, September 2025; share calculated from IGC figures) Nearly half: share of India’s rice exports that went to Africa in 2024, about 9 million tonnes worth $4.5 billion (Ecofin Agency, TradeMap) 70%: share of India’s parboiled rice exports taken by sub-Saharan Africa, October 2024 to April 2025 (USDA, as reported by Milling MEA) $48.9 million: India’s rice exports to the Philippines, one of the world’s largest rice importers, in 2024-25 (Indian trade data, as reported by Angel One) 20.4%: processed foods’ share of India’s agri-food exports in 2024-25, up from 13.7% in 2014-15 (Ministry of Food Processing Industries, via IANS) $12.7 billion: India’s agricultural trade surplus in 2025-26, down from $27.7 billion in 2013-14 (Indian Express) 24 August 2026: date India moved wheat, flour, semolina and atta from “prohibited” to “free” export (Directorate General of Foreign Trade) Deep Dive: Three Shifts in Indian Food Exports Supply: curbs give way to open exports, rice first and wheat later. India eased most of its 2023 rice export curbs in September 2024. Harvests are large: wheat output is estimated at a record 120.65 million tonnes in 2025-26, up 2.29%, within a record foodgrain harvest of 376.56 million tonnes (Ministry of Agriculture, third advance estimates, May 2026). Wheat followed rice in steps. India had banned wheat exports in 2022 and later extended the ban to flour. In February 2026 it allowed a first quota of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat (S&P Global, 16 February) and in April approved a further 2.5 million tonnes, bringing the quota to 5 million tonnes (Global Trade Alert, 20 April; S&P Global, 21 April). On 24 August 2026 the Directorate General of Foreign Trade moved wheat (notification 35/2026-27) and wheat flour, semolina and wholemeal flour, or atta (notification 34/2026-27), from “prohibited” to “free”. Bangladeshi importers booked more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat in the following weeks (Bloomberg, as reported by Hellenic Shipping News). The reversal rests on policy, which has changed before, so buyers have reason to keep other origins open. Rice supply is also heavy: the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts world rice production to fall about 1.6% in 2026/27 to 552.4 million tonnes (Food Outlook, 18 June 2026, via Milling MEA), while the USDA, as reported by BigMint, forecasts record Indian rice exports of 25 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year, with ending stocks above 50 million tonnes. Market access: tariffs and trade deals. The United States was a high-value outlet for spices, basmati rice and processed fruit, and its tariff on Indian goods has changed repeatedly. It rose to 50% in late August 2025 and was cut to 18% under a trade deal announced on 2 February 2026 (S&P Global). After the US Supreme Court struck down the emergency-powers tariffs, a temporary 10% surcharge under Section 122 applied, and since 24 July 2026 a 10% duty under Section 301 of US trade law has applied (The Week; The Hindu, via EcoNiti). In 2025-26 India’s spice exports to the United States fell from $654.7 million to $578.7 million, basmati rice from $337.1 million to $285.9 million, and processed fruit and vegetables from $274.3 million to $214 million; fresh fruit and vegetable exports held steady, with the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, the Netherlands, Bangladesh and Malaysia among the main markets (Indian Express, via FreshPlaza). The European Union (EU) and India concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement on 27 January 2026, and the European Commission said beef, chicken meat, rice and sugar are excluded from liberalisation (S&P Global, 27 January 2026). On 11 September 2026 the Commission sent the Council a proposal to authorise signature. As of 2 November 2026 no signing had been reported, so the deal is not in force. David McAllister, chair of the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said he hopes it can be signed in December, with Parliament’s consent possible in the spring and entry into force in the summer (NDTV World, via ua.news, 29 October 2026). These are expectations, not a fixed timetable. Beyond the United States and Europe, South-East Asia is the least tapped outlet. The Philippines, one of the world’s largest rice importers, bought about $2.52 billion of rice, of which India supplied only $48.9 million in 2024-25; of roughly $20 billion in Philippine farm imports in 2024, India provided $413 million, about 2% (Indian trade data, as reported by Angel One). Standards: quality becomes market access. Foreign regulators are a bigger constraint than before. Japan began rejecting Indian mango shipments with phytosanitary certificates issued on or after 25 March 2026, after its inspectors reportedly found flaws at a vapour heat treatment plant in Uttar Pradesh (Fruitnet; TBS News); Japan imported about $1.54 million of Indian mangoes in 2025 (TBS News). On 17 April China revoked the import licences of three Indian rice exporters after customs rejected consignments over alleged genetically modified (GMO) traces; India says its rice is GMO-free, and APEDA published a list of approved GMO-testing laboratories on 8 June (Al Jazeera). The EU recorded 312 rapid-alert notifications on Indian spices in 2024 and has inspected 30% of Indian cumin consignments since January 2025 (Al Jazeera). India is building capacity: recognised export-testing laboratories rose from 22 to 89 and approved export establishments from 645 to 1,499 between 2014-15 and 2025-26 (Press Information Bureau). But specialist capacity remains thin, and only a few facilities, mainly in New Delhi and Hyderabad, can run the protein analysis needed for GMO verification (Al Jazeera). What This Means for Business For importers, traders and food manufacturers in the Global South: India is again a price-competitive source of wheat and rice, but its export policy has reversed before, so contracts that allow alternative origins and flexible volumes lower the risk. For Indian exporters and processors: market access increasingly depends on residue testing, traceability and certification, and spreading sales across the Gulf, South Asia, Africa, Europe and South-East Asia reduces exposure to US tariff swings. For testing, packaging, cold-chain and traceability suppliers: the gap between export volumes and laboratory, inspection and tracking capacity is a clear service market. For investors and lenders: heavy rice supply and a pending EU deal support export growth, but large volumes can weigh on prices and the EU agreement is not yet signed or in force. For policymakers in import-dependent countries: diversifying wheat and rice origins and following Indian export rules and food-safety standards matter, because one policy change in New Delhi can move prices in Africa and Asia. Frequently Asked Questions How important is India in global food trade? India is the world’s largest rice exporter, with a projected 23.4 million tonnes of 59.9 million tonnes of world rice trade in 2025-26, about 39%, according to the International Grains Council. It is also a leading exporter of spices, marine products and buffalo meat, and a large importer, mainly of edible oils and fruit. How large are India’s agricultural exports? They reached $52.55 billion in fiscal year 2025-26, a record and 2.8% above the previous year, according to India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Where are India’s food exports headed? The United States is volatile after repeated tariff changes, Africa is the deepest rice market, the EU has negotiated but not yet signed a trade deal that leaves rice out and has tightened inspections, and South-East Asia is the least developed outlet. Which Global South markets depend most on Indian rice? Africa took nearly half of India’s rice exports in 2024, and sub-Saharan Africa bought 70% of India’s parboiled rice between October 2024 and April 2025, with Nigeria, Benin, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire among the main buyers. What changed for wheat exports in 2026? India allowed a first export quota of 2.5 million tonnes in February, added a further 2.5 million tonnes in April, and on 24 August moved wheat and wheat flour from “prohibited” to “free” export. Bangladeshi buyers booked more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat in the following weeks as Black Sea supplies tightened. How have US tariffs affected Indian food exports? US duties on Indian goods changed repeatedly after August 2025. In 2025-26 Indian spice, basmati rice and processed fruit and vegetable exports to the United States all fell. Why do quality checks matter for Indian food exporters? Japan suspended some Indian mango shipments in 2026, China revoked the licences of three rice exporters over alleged GMO traces, and the EU inspects 30% of Indian cumin. India has raised its recognised testing laboratories from 22 to 89 since 2014-15. More in Strategic Briefs on GlobalSouth ExpoHub Selectors Country: India Industry: Agriculture / Food & Beverage Context event: Annapoorna Inter Food 2026 Alliance: BRICS

Context event: Annapoorna Inter Food 2026

Agriculture · India · BRICS · SCO