Africa Auto Market 2026: Old Fleets, Chinese Presence Grows

Global South EXPOHUB AI Analytics · 2026-10-26

Africa has one of the lowest vehicle ownership rates in the world. That is the promise of its automotive market, and also the source of its problems: the fleet is old, heavily dependent on second-hand imports, and increasingly shaped by the arrival of new Chinese brands. Context: Low Motorisation, a Fleet Built on Used Imports The African Region of the World Health Organization (WHO), which covers Africa south of the Sahara plus Algeria, is home to about 15% of the world’s population but only about 3% of its vehicle fleet (WHO, Global Status Report on Road Safety 2023). The Energy for Growth Hub puts the continental average at about 73 vehicles per 1,000 people, against roughly 300 globally (2017 data, the year shown in its chart), and projects that income and population growth could roughly double that average by 2050. Much of today’s fleet arrived second-hand. A 2020 UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report found that about 14 million used light vehicles were exported worldwide between 2015 and 2018, roughly 80% of them to low- and middle-income countries, and that Africa took about 40% of the total; the exporters were mainly Europe, the United States and Japan. South Africa, with about 13.36 million registered vehicles at the end of 2024, shows what an older fleet looks like at scale: the average vehicle on its roads was 10 years and 8 months old (Automotive Trade Manual 2025 of naamsa, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa). Key Numbers 3%: the WHO African Region’s share of the global vehicle fleet, with about 15% of the world’s population (WHO, 2023) 73 per 1,000: average vehicles per 1,000 people in Africa, against about 300 globally (Energy for Growth Hub, 2017 data) 40%: Africa’s share of used light vehicles exported worldwide in 2015-2018, out of about 14 million (UNEP, 2020) About two-thirds: share of 146 countries analysed by UNEP with weak or very weak rules on used-vehicle imports 10 years 8 months: average age of a vehicle on South African roads in 2024 (naamsa) 222,000: Chinese cars exported to Africa in January-May 2025, up by as much as 67% year on year (Passenger Car Association, China, as reported by 36Kr) 8.32 million: China’s total vehicle exports in 2025, up 29.9% (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) 1.3%: Africa’s share of global vehicle production in 2025, about 1.23 million units out of 96.4 million; Morocco and South Africa made more than 91% of the continent’s output (naamsa Automotive Trade Manual 2026, as reported by Morocco World News) 16.8%: Chinese brands’ share of South African passenger-car sales in 2025, up from 11.2% in 2024 (naamsa, as reported by Reuters) 83.2%: fall in South African vehicle exports to the United States in 2025, from 24,682 to 4,136 units (naamsa) Deep Dive: Four Pressure Points Repair. An old fleet built on used imports is costly to keep safe. In a Dutch review cited by UNEP, covering used vehicles exported mainly to West Africa, most vehicles lacked a valid roadworthiness certificate, were 16 to 20 years old and fell below Euro 4 emission standards. Governments are starting to respond. From January 2026, Kenya admits used cars no more than eight years from first registration and requires roadworthiness verification for imports from several source countries, while UNEP reported in 2020 that Morocco, which allowed only vehicles under five years old that met Euro 4, received comparatively newer, cleaner used vehicles as a result. Workshops also depend on access to technical information and parts. South Africa’s automotive aftermarket guidelines, amended in September 2024, expect manufacturers to give independent repairers technical data, original parts where required and training from the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) at no higher cost than for dealer staff. The Competition Commission’s separate October 2026 repair guidelines, by contrast, exclude motor vehicles. Buying new. Replacing the fleet runs into cost and credit. A 2018 Deloitte study, cited by Global Fleet in 2020, found that about eight in ten imported vehicles in Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria were second-hand, that bank lending rates can reach 30% in some cases, and that vehicle taxes in Ethiopia can exceed 220% depending on engine size. Those data are dated, but they show why second-hand imports persist. Price remains decisive in newer data from South Africa: a Cars.co.za survey of more than 2,000 shoppers found that 70.8% cited price as a primary factor, ahead of fuel efficiency at 52.5%, and Absa reports that Chinese brands account for 40% of SUV finance applications, up from 19% in 2023. Local production. If imports are costly and used cars dominate, building more vehicles in Africa looks like the obvious answer, yet the continent made only about 1.23 million vehicles in 2025, 1.3% of global output, and Morocco and South Africa accounted for more than 91% of it (naamsa Automotive Trade Manual 2026, as reported by Morocco World News). UNCTAD’s 2023 Economic Development in Africa Report points to small and fragmented national markets, a thin regional parts industry, expensive credit and trade rules that are still being finalised: by its estimate, an efficient assembly plant needs about 80,000 vehicles a year, while only about 4% of Africa’s auto-parts imports come from within the continent. Some countries show what is possible. Morocco reached about 60% local integration with more than 230 suppliers, and Chery, which bought Nissan’s Rosslyn plant in South Africa in 2026, plans to begin local production for sales from 2027. Why so few factories exist, and what would change that, deserves a closer look of its own. Competition. China is the fastest-moving supplier of new vehicles. Passenger Car Association data show 222,000 cars shipped to Africa in the first five months of 2025, led by South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco, as China’s total vehicle exports rose to 8.32 million units. In South Africa, naamsa data reported by Reuters show Chinese manufacturers taking 16.8% of passenger-car sales in 2025, up from 11.2% in 2024, with 15 Chinese brands on sale, up from eight. TechCentral, citing naamsa, reports more than 19% of all new-vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2026. Europe, the United States and Japan, for their part, were the main exporters of used light vehicles worldwide in 2015-2018, and Africa took about 40% of them (UNEP). South Africa’s own locally built vehicles go mainly to Europe, which took 80.3% of the country’s vehicle exports in 2025 (naamsa). The United States influences the market in a different way. A 25% Section 232 tariff on vehicles and components cut South African vehicle exports to the US by 83.2% in 2025, in an industry that accounted for 23.8% of the country’s manufacturing output. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade-preference programme, was extended to the end of 2028 in September 2026, but the Section 232 duty applies regardless, and naamsa has said that an extension gives breathing room but that the duty remains a significant hurdle. South Africa’s eligibility for 2027 is still subject to the annual US review. What This Means for Business For parts, diagnostics and workshop-equipment suppliers: an ageing, multi-brand fleet needs broad parts catalogues, diagnostic coverage and technician training, and the shift toward Chinese brands widens the range of models to support. For lenders, insurers and fleet operators: financing cost and used-vehicle quality are the main barriers to renewing the fleet, so affordable credit and inspection regimes shape demand. For vehicle manufacturers and new entrants: price and finance access decide share, and local assembly, parts supply and service networks will matter as new brands age out of warranty. For investors and assembly planners: local production remains limited by scale, parts supply and unfinished regional trade rules, so projects tied to export markets and supplier clusters carry less risk. For policymakers: import-age rules, roadworthiness standards and trade terms with the US, Europe and China directly shape fleet quality and industrial investment. Frequently Asked Questions Why is Africa seen as a promising car market? The WHO African Region holds about 15% of the world’s population but only about 3% of its vehicles, and the Energy for Growth Hub projects that vehicle ownership could roughly double by 2050 as incomes and populations grow. What is the main problem with Africa’s vehicle fleet? It is old and heavily dependent on second-hand imports. Africa received about 40% of the used light vehicles exported worldwide in 2015-2018 (UNEP). Rules on the age and condition of imported used cars are often weak: of the 146 countries UNEP reviewed worldwide, about two-thirds had weak or very weak rules, which makes them an easy destination for old vehicles. Who is shaping Africa’s car market? Chinese brands are growing fastest in new vehicles, with 222,000 cars exported to Africa in January-May 2025, while Europe, the US and Japan were the main exporters of used vehicles, with Africa taking about 40% of them. US tariffs have cut South African vehicle exports to the US by more than 80%. How are Chinese brands performing in South Africa? According to naamsa data reported by Reuters, they took 16.8% of passenger-car sales in 2025, up from 11.2% in 2024. TechCentral, citing naamsa, reports more than 19% of all new-vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2026. Why does Africa build so few cars? Africa made about 1.23 million vehicles in 2025, 1.3% of the global total, with Morocco and South Africa producing more than 91% of them. UNCTAD cites small national markets, a thin parts industry, expensive credit and unfinished regional trade rules. Related Content For more on industrial strategy and market access across the Global South, see our related briefs on trade and infrastructure cooperation. Country: South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt Industry: Automotive / Automotive Aftermarket Transportation Equipment Alliance: BRICS AfCFTA / African Union

Context event: Futuroad Expo South Africa

Automobiles & Components · South Africa · African Free Trade Area · BRICS